Archive for Iran

Confused By The Situation In Syria? Let Me Explain.

Posted in America, Arab, Britain, Insurgents, Islamic Revolution, Muslim, News, Religion, Terrorism, UK with tags , , , , on 18/11/2015 by floroy1942

All the politics surrounding the situation in Syria is confusing a lot of people, so here is a simple explanation of what is going on:

AssadPresident Assad (who is bad) is a nasty guy who got so nasty his people rebelled and the Rebels (who are good) started winning.

But then some of the rebels turned a bit nasty and are now called Islamic State (who are definitely bad) and some continued to support democracy (who are still good).

So the Americans (who are good) started bombing Islamic State (who are bad) and giving arms to the Syrian Rebels (who are good) so they could fight Assad (who is still bad) which was good.

Kurd LeaderBy the way, there is a breakaway state in the north run by the Kurds who want to fight IS (which is a good thing) but the Turkish authorities think they are bad, so we have to say they are bad whilst secretly thinking they’re good and giving them guns to fight IS (which is good) but that is another matter.

Getting back to Syria. President Putin (bad, as he invaded Crimea and the Ukraine and killed lots of folks including that nice Russian man in London with polonium) has decided to back Assad (who is still bad) by attacking IS (who are also bad) which is sort of a good thing?

PutinBut Putin (still bad) thinks the Syrian Rebels (who are good) are also bad, and so he bombs them too, much to the annoyance of the Americans (who are good) who are busy backing and arming the rebels (who are also good).

Now Iran (who used to be bad, but now they have agreed not to build any nuclear weapons and bomb Israel are now good) are going to provide ground troops to support Assad (still bad) as are the Russians (bad) who now have ground troops and aircraft in Syria.

So a Coalition of Assad (still bad) Putin (extra bad) and the Iranians (good, but in a bad sort of way) are going to attack IS (who are bad) which is a good thing, but also the Syrian Rebels (who are good) which is bad.

CorbinNow the British (obviously good, except Corbin who is probably bad) and the Americans (also good) cannot attack Assad (still bad) for fear of upsetting Putin (bad) and Iran (good / bad) and now they have to accept that Assad might not be that bad after all compared to IS (who are super bad).

So Assad (bad) is now probably good, being better than IS (no real choice there) and since Putin and Iran are also fighting IS that may now make them good. America (still good) will find it hard to arm a group of rebels being attacked by the Russians for fear of upsetting Mr Putin (now good) and that mad ayatollah in Iran (also good) and so they may be forced to say that the Rebels are now bad, or at the very least abandon them to their fate. This will lead most of them to flee to Turkey and on to Europe or join IS (still the only constantly bad group).

Sunni Versus ShiaTo Sunni Muslims, an attack by Shia Muslims (Assad and Iran) backed by Russians will be seen as something of a Holy War, and the ranks of IS will now be seen by the Sunnis as the only Jihadis fighting in the Holy War and hence many Muslims will now see IS as good.

Sunni Muslims will also see the lack of action by Britain and America in support of their Sunni rebel brothers as something of a betrayal (might have a point) and hence we will be seen as bad.

So now we have America (now bad) and Britain (also bad) providing limited support to Sunni Rebels (bad) many of whom are looking to IS (good / bad) for support against Assad (now good) who, along with Iran (also good) and Putin (also, now, unbelievably, good ) are attempting to retake the country Assad used to run before all this started?

I hope this clears up the situation for you.

My thanks to the anonymous author.


Charlie Hebdo – Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire?

Posted in Al Quada, Arab, Britain, Demonstration, European Union, Insurgents, News, Relationships, Terrorism with tags , , , , on 17/01/2015 by floroy1942

Charlie HebdoThe tragic events of last week and the mass outpouring of indignation at the attack on free speech has it seems backfired. The release of the recent edition of Charlie Hebdo, with the cover featuring once again the Prophet Mohammed, has caused a storm of protest across the Islamic world.

Iranian President Hassan Rowhani  Condemns Paris Attack

Iranian President Hassan Rowhani Condemns Paris Attack

Countries like Iran, whose leaders condemned the attack in Paris, have now become a hotbed of violent protest at the release of the paper’s latest edition, which it sees once again as a direct insult to the Prophet.

Muslims all across the Arab world, and the Islamic followers in other countries, are incensed at what they consider a direct insult to their religion.

World Leaders Gather In Protest

World Leaders Gather In Protest

This latest edition of Charlie Hebdo has sold over 7 million copies compared to its normal circulation of around 70,000, due purely to the high profile the attack has had across the world. At the massive demonstration in support of the paper and its right to free speech, leaders from across the world came to Paris in solidarity against the terror attack that took the lives of seventeen staff members. Arab countries from across the Middle East publicly condemned the attack, even Iran, which as we all know has been chief among the Arab nations supporting terrorist groups.

Now, one week later it is clear the western world, and particularly France, is not ‘out of the woods’ yet. Seldom has there been such mass demonstrations among the Islamic people where so many, from so many countries have come together to protest.

Muslim Hatred

Muslim Hatred

To me it seems this one terror act has started a fire that will take a long time and much effort to put out. Such is the current level of hatred among Muslims for ‘infidels’ who dared so dramatically to insult their religion that it has done a huge service to the insurgent groups who will undoubtedly gain more recruits. It appears to me that we may have inadvertently lit the fuse to a new wave of terrorist attacks across the western countries.

Belgian Terrorist Arrest

Belgian Terrorist Arrest

The many arrests in Belgium, France and Germany this last week are an indication that groups are already forming to continue the slaughter initiated by the Charlie Hebdo attackers. In several European countries security forces and police are on high alert to try and head off these attacks, but it may be impossible to stop them all.

Schengen Countries

Schengen Countries

Spain has recently called for a review of the Shengan Agreement that opened all inner European borders many years ago. They say the reinstatement of border checks may help prevent the free travel of insurgents once in Europe. This may well be a good idea when you consider that terror groups, once on European soil, are free to travel from country to country.

Muhammad-The-Ideal-ProphetFor the people of France the Charlie Hebdo attack was a direct assault on free speech, which like many western countries is held to be sacrosanct. It had nothing to do with insulting another’s religion, but this was an unfortunate sideline. Everyone knows how touchy the Islamists are about insulting their prophet, and in the light of that information, I do find that the cartoons lampooning Mohammed to be somewhat provocative. Just because you have the right to do something does not make it a justifiable act.

Free Speech

Free Speech

This is in essence what the Pope said in a speech recently and to a point I have to agree with him. Just because you have the right to insult someone does not necessarily mean you have to do it. At first I was dead against what he said for it seemed he was taking sides, but on reflection I realized that his words were true. In the West we know how touchy the Islamists are about their Prophet Mohammed, so why step into the lions mouth and do something that offends them. As we see with this episode, all it has done is inflame passions against us.

So here we are, with one western newspaper starting a wave of hatred for anything non-Muslim among the 1.6 billion Muslims around the world. What have we got ourselves into?

Area Of al Quada Operations

Area Of al Quada Operations

It is clear that insurgent groups like Islamic State and al Quada will use this current wave of hate to recruit more members, and al Quada itself will feel justified in beginning a wave of attacks across Europe. Countries like France, Britain, Belgium and Germany may well become the main targets for these killers, and no matter how alert the security forces are, some will always get through.

I.S. Foreign Fighters

I.S. Foreign Fighters

It is already known that European Muslims fighting for Islamic State in Syria and Iraq have been trained in terror tactics, and many of them are already back in their country of residence. This fact poses a major problem for the security forces across Europe because to track down all of them when they return is difficult.

This whole episode is a very sad indication of our times where religious hatred, the likes of which we have not seen for a thousand years, is destroying the fabric of civilization and turning us against one another.


Israel Versus Nuclear Iran and the Gulf States Dilemma

Posted in Ahmadinajad, Al Quada, Britain, Europe, Iran, Israel, Taliban, Terrorism, UK, USA with tags , , , on 07/11/2011 by floroy1942

What would the reaction of the Gulf States be if Israel bombed Iran to prevent them getting nuclear weapons? A tricky question that has arisen, because as the weeks go by, such an action becomes more likely.

The Gulf and Iran

Despite its vehement protestations of ‘innocence’, everyone knows that Iran is desperately trying to develop nuclear weapons. Why? Because it would make them ‘king of the hill’ in the Middle East, and as they see it, get America off their backs. It would also give them membership of the exclusive club of world states with nuclear weapons; i.e. America, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel (undeclared). A ninth state, North Korea, has tested a weapon of course and is rumoured to have several devices.

The danger with a country like Iran having ‘The Bomb’ is largely the same as North Korea having it. There is ample evidence to suggest they have assisted Iran in getting as far as they have.

Kim Jong-il In Collusion

North Korea is a closed communist country, and is considered by most to be a ‘rogue’ state. Its leader Kim Jong-il, is decidedly unstable when it comes to relations with other countries, in particular the United States and its ally South Korea. Iran on the other hand is not only a ‘rogue’ state, but one of strategic importance to the west.


Another major problem with Iran having such weapons, is their continual backing of terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, al Quada and  the Taliban. The Iranian government has a pathological hatred of western nations, and should it ever come to pass that they do succeed in their ambitions, the rest of us will live in fear of the big bang that will obliterate many of our major cities. For it does not take a huge stretch of the imagination to realise that the Iranian government is capable of providing one of the aforementioned terrorist groups with a nuclear bomb to be placed in New York, Washington, London or perhaps Paris or Berlin. Of course, let us not rule out the fact that Israel will be their first target.

From unguarded comments made by rulers in most Gulf States, it appears that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are not welcome. The Saudi’s have on many occasions accused Iran of deliberately trying to upset the balance of power in the Gulf. Iran is a Shi’ite nation  and according to Saudi Arabia, is fermenting dissention among the minority Shi’ite population of the Sunni led Gulf states. Iran has also been accused of attempting to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador in Washington.

Saudi King

As far back as 2008, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia urged a U.S.-led attack against Iran to “cut off the head of the snake” and halt Tehran’s nuclear program. Such sentiments are also held by the majority of Arab nations in the Gulf region, privately of course, for none would dare come out openly against the Iranians except Saudi Arabia which is the strongest.

And then there is Israel! She is without doubt the thorn in the side of Iran, her most hated enemy. As Ahmadinejad said, “Israel should be wiped from the map”, and he would love to be the one that pushes the button. Iran has recently tested a long-range missile capable of reaching Israel, and according to the latest reports from the IAEA and Intelligence sources, they are very close to making a nuclear weapon.

Iran's Missile Test

Over the last eight years or so it has become obvious Iran will not bow to international will and cease operations, so that leaves only one option on the table: Military action!

With vast resources available in the Gulf, America is the obvious choice, but Israel, knowing it would be fighting for its very survival in the event of a nuclear Iran, is more likely to fire the vital shot. You can be sure in such an event that the Gulf States will be ‘outraged’ at such a blatant aggression, but secretly be clapping their hands in glee at the prospect of Iran’s nuclear ambitions being nipped in the bud. In effect, they have it both ways, for they will have achieved the aim of neutralising Iran while themselves not having to lift a finger. On top of that, they will have a ‘ready-made’ scapegoat at which to hurl their righteous indignation and empty threats.

Iranian Nuclear Site at Qom

In essence, it will be a win-win situation for everyone except Iran, for a while at least. I say this because Iran is not likely to take such an attack lying down. There will be reprisals, but they will most likely be aimed at their old protagonist Israel. Naturally, some of their anger will be aimed at their old enemy the United States, and possibly Europe, and it seems inevitable that terror attacks will increase as Iran uses groups like al Quada as a weapon.

One of Our Cities?

Blood will be spilled in the months after an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities, but when you consider what the alternative could mean for world peace, it is a small price to pay. Should Iran ever achieve its aim of becoming a nuclear power, then the casualties will be numbered in their tens of millions and huge swathes of the globe could be uninhabitable for thousands of years.



The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Lust for Power

Posted in Ahmadinajad, Arab, Insanity, Iran, Islamic Revolution, Israel, Modern World, North Korea, Nuclear, Nuclear Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, UN, United Nations with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on 05/06/2010 by floroy1942

Our Nuclear World

In 1970 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) came into force signed by the then three nuclear powers, and ratified by 40 other nations. Since that date many other states have accepted the treaty by accession, and now a total of 189 countries have agreed to abide by its rules.

India and Pakistan

Only three nations, India, Pakistan and Israel refused to be a part of the treaty agreements. India began testing nuclear weapons in 1974 which forced Pakistan to go down the same road. Now both nations have a considerable number of nuclear weapons designed principally to keep the other at bay in their age-old conflict.

Under Scrutiny

Israel is another non-signatory that has developed a sophisticated nuclear arsenal, which is believed to include submarine launched nuclear tipped cruise missiles. In the case of Israel however, surrounded as she is by ‘unfriendly’ nations, one can perhaps understand the country’s predicament.

North Korea, while originally accepting the treaty, withdrew in January 2003, the reason for which quickly became obvious. Iran ratified the treaty on the 5th of March 1970 and although it has not withdrawn, is suspected of developing nuclear weapons.

Now a new player is on the block!

News came in this week that Burma is the latest country with nuclear ambitions despite acceding to the treaty in December 1992, and you know what they say; ‘There is no smoke without fire’. Based on information from a former Burmese Army Major, Sei Theen Win, the accusation has not been corroborated but shall we say, suspicions run deep.

One Way To Make Money!

One of the disturbing factors here appears to be the high level of co-operation between North Korea and the Burmese Military Junta, which is not surprising. North Korea is a desperately poor country, and one of the sure-fire ways of making money and friends is to export its limited nuclear technology to those countries and governments that aspire to being nuclear states. North Korea is known to have collaborated with Iran on its nuclear ambitions.

Nations like North Korea and Iran think they can ‘Stand Tall’ among the international community, and in particular their neighbouring states, by possessing ‘The Bomb’, although many will say for these two nations it is more about military superiority in their sphere of influence. Whichever way you look at it, its all about power!

Burma has been under military rule since the ‘coup d’etat’ by General Ne Win in 1962 which effectively ended democracy in the country. Pursuing a policy of isolationism, the military rulers of Burma managed to keep a lid on things until May 2008, when Cyclone Nargis destroyed large areas of the Irriwaddy Delta which supplied most of the nations rice. The initial refusal of the military junta to allow United Nations assistance to enter the country with much needed supplies caused a backlash for the junta that is still felt today.

After the devastation, civil unrest grew to huge proportions with mass protests in the streets of all the major cities, and the power of the junta was threatened. Opposition to military rule began to ferment, and in order to silence opposition the junta promised to hold elections, but their main protagonist Suu Kyi, leader of the anti-government movement was arrested and sentenced to house arrest by the junta.

This Way Kim! This Way!

Having successfully dealt the opposition a fatal blow they are now, it would seem, turning to the nuclear option. Which ever way you look at it, and whatever spin you put on it, Burma has no logical reason for wanting nuclear weapons unless it is a means for the military junta to retain power. Burma has not been threatened by any nation since WW2, so why would they want such weapons? You are left with the inevitable; Power!

Pull The Other Leg Ahmed!

Iran wants to be ‘Top Dog’ in the Middle East, apart that is from blowing Israel off the map. Fanatics like Ahmadinejad seem the think that with nuclear weapons, Iran will be able to throw its weight around and no-one will dare say anything against them. Because the middle east is the world’s most important supplier of oil, this could have serious ramifications. Again its all about ‘Power!’

Kim Jong-il's View of the World

So far as North Korea is concerned, the regime of Kim Jong-il has felt threatened from outside its borders ever since the end of the Korean war, principally by South Korea  and the USA, and therefore has taken steps to ensure the ‘wolves’ remain at bay. With the regimes finger on the trigger it is for sure that no-one will start a war with the North. By the acquisition of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-il and his cohorts have successfully stalemated the Far East and ensured their continued survival.

For many governments, regimes and even individuals, power is a drug far more intoxicating than cocaine and must be retained at any cost. Such is our modern way of life.

“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely” words first uttered in 1887 by  Sir John Dalberg-Acton (1834-1902) an English historian.


A New Political Party in America Under ‘President’ Palin?

Posted in Afghanistan, Ahmadinajad, Al Quada, Arab, Britain, Elections, England, Iran, MP's, Muslim, North Korea, Obama, Parliament, President, Terrorism, UK with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on 07/02/2010 by floroy1942

Could we be witnessing the beginnings of a new political movement in the United States with ‘President’ Palin at its head? After reading reports of the Tea Party Convention and Sarah Palin’s speech it does look a possibility. America, with its two party system of Government has many people thinking there is not much to choose between the parties. Pretty much the same as in Britain with its Tory and Labour parties dominating the political scene. There is no doubt that in Britain at least, both parties equally manage to make a mess of government and they seldom govern ‘For the People’.

I do not favour a system of many parties vying to get elected, and then having to go ‘cap in hand’ to others to form a majority like Italy and Belgium for example. Any political party should be strong enough to govern alone without the need to make ‘deals’ with others to form a government. In that way the voters do not have a definitive set of policies to vote for.

On the other hand, if a country with two main parties, each of which continually make an equal mess of running things as is amply demonstrated in Britain, and to a certain extent the United States, then it is time for a new party to step forward on both sides of ‘the pond’.

Many voters in the United States and Britain do not like the proposals of either party, and so vote for those they think are ‘the lesser evil’. Politics in general has got to the stage where it is stagnating, and politicians so happy to shake your hand, be photographed with babies, and who will promise you anything to get elected, are everywhere. Once in power all the promises are forgotten and its business as usual.

Politicians are not typically interested in doing what is best, or what is necessary for a country these days. They glibly go about their business making the same mistakes their predecessors made, and do nothing constructive to solve a nations problems.

So is it now time for a new dynamic political party that will do what is necessary to tackle the country’s, and the world’s problems. It is time, but who will dare? How do you gain the support of the voters to carry the day? No party, in any democratic land, has ever gained sufficient support within one term of office of a government to sweep aside the old guard at the following election.

The Tea Party, meeting in Nashville, is trying to turn activism over the past year into actual political power. This is a monumental task, but if Sarah Palin becomes their champion they could succeed. As to the next presidential election, she has admitted, rather demurely; “It would be absurd not to consider what it is that I can potentially do to help our country”. For that you can read she will definitely run given the opportunity.

John McCains defeat at the last election, which scuppered her chances of becoming Vice President, was according to some pundits partly due to her lack of knowledge in international affairs. Since then she has been learning, and has become increasingly vocal, appearing more and more in the news and on TV. It is clear she has already started her bid for the White House, but must be wary of overexposure.

It is still three years to election time in the States and she may have started too soon. I am however reasonably certain she will stay in the public eye until election time, because many of the rank and file voters still do not find her a viable option for the post of president, but there is no doubt, she has charm and that will be put to good use over the next three years.  It would not surprise me one bit to see her eventually rise as nominal head of the Tea Party.

If the Tea Party are successful in becoming a new political party, and can gain sufficient support from the American people, she could find herself in the running for Obama’s job. But would she make a good President?

Personally, I have my doubts. She is, in a word, a hawk and could be dangerous both for the United States, and world peace. Obama is quite the opposite. I am sure that if the chips were down he would not hesitate to take the necessary action, and although many call him soft, I think he is more of a peacemaker than an appeaser, and this is what the world and the United States needs right now. He has his own way of doing things and the American people will have to be patient to see if he succeeds. It is difficult for him when the US Senate continually stands in his way.

Although I do not know the lady, Sarah Palin appears to me to be of the same ilk as George Bush who would readily go in with guns blazing and see about clearing up the mess afterwards. I watched her during the abortive presidential election campaign and got the impression she is a lady ‘with balls’ (if you’ll excuse the pun) but is of the ‘shoot first – ask questions later’ type. Her comments during the convention only go to confirm this conclusion. When talking of Afghanistan she said, “To win that war we need a commander-in-chief, not a professor of law”.

George W. Bush went into Iraq without, in hindsight, just cause, and his son went into Afghanistan after 9/11, could it be that Iran is on the agenda for Sarah Palin if she becomes President?

It is easy to criticise after the event, but personally I am satisfied that the end justified the means in removing Saddam Hussein who after all was butchering his own people, and I am also in agreement with the war in Afghanistan for the main reason that the Taliban had to be removed, not only for the people of Afghanistan, but for the peace and security of the whole world. Wherever fanaticism raises its head it should be stopped for the sake of world peace.

The burning question is, who is best for America? America has been on the short end of a huge amount of criticism since the Iraq war, mainly for its handling of the peace. The country has lost friends all across the globe and is arguably the most hated nation on earth. Nations like Iran and North Korea saw George Bush waving his guns in their direction, and currently, Pakistani’s are dying from American strikes on the Taliban which has led to an upsurge of anti-American feeling. The good intentions are without doubt there, but in my view, Barak Obama has far more chance of defeating the Taliban and dealing with Iran than Sarah Palin would with all her guns. Either way, I believe Ms. Palin has a long road to travel in convincing the American voter she is ready for the pesidency. I may be wrong, I guess time will tell.

As things stand, we will just have to wait and see what the future holds for American politics, and world peace.


The Lust For Power

Posted in Afghanistan, Ahmadinajad, Elections, Iran, President with tags , , , , , , , , on 20/10/2009 by floroy1942

For millenia people have lusted for money or fame, but in today’s high power world this has been replaced by the sheer unadulterated lust for power.

That is not to say people no  longer yearn for money, most of us do for one reason or another, but among the power mongers of this world, it is a position of dominance over everyone else that drives them on.

Over the past decades, we have seen many dominant individuals or groups using every trick in the book (plus a few outside it) to hang on to the power base they have achieved.

With rulers, it is most often dictators who will cheat, steal, and even murder, to prevent any loss of superiority they have. As most of us know, Germany’s Adolf Hitler and Russia’s Stalin were in a class of thier own before, during, and after the time of the Second World War. They were by no means the last of their kind however, for even in the seventies there were cruel dictators like Idi Amin of Uganda, who ruled with unconscionable savagery. Anyone who stood in his way just ‘disappeared’, and we all know what that means.

In the eighties, the ruling military junta in Argentina threw the whole country into war with Great Britain over the disputed Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic. Their aim, to distract the attention of the population away from their poor living standards and of course the ‘disappearances’.

Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is another who falls into the category of ‘The Power Hungry’. During his years in power, Mugabe has turned the ‘breadbasket’ of Africa into one of the poorest on the continent, and despite what he is doing to his people, he will not give up the Presidency.

It has been reported enough in the press about his machete-wielding thugs going around killing or maiming anyone who supported the opposition during the last election.

All that however was the past. Today’s power maniacs have found a new way to stay where they are – election rigging.

The latest to attempt it is President Karzei of Afghanistan. It was necessary for a joint UN/Afghan body to inspect the election results for fraudulent practices during the recently held national elections.

The resulting investigation showed one third of the votes cast for Karzei had to be discounted, thus requiring a run-off with his rival Abdullah Abdullah. In the past weeks it has only been intense political pressure from the United States, Europe, and other countries that has finally made Karzei agree to run-off elections.

In the past decade, various countries have been through the same turmoil at election time, among the most well known is Georgia, and more recently Iran.

Another tactic common today is changing the countries constitution to allow presidents to run for longer periods than that laid down in the statute books.

Among the countries that have extended, or done away with limits on presidential terms of office are, to name but a few; Algeria, Camaroon, Chad, Bolivia, Equador,Gabon, Honduras, Tunisia, Uganda and Venzuela.

Of these, perhaps Venzuela is the most significant. Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president, manipulated the government into renouncing all restrictions on his term of office. He has carved for himself such a strong power-base that now, only the foolhardy will ever challenge him in future ‘elections’.

The maintenance of continued power, and the methods by which it is achieved, has taken a subtle turn to bring it more in line with the modern world.

While the rich and powerful get more so, the only losers are the common people – as always.

Thank God the world is not all doom and gloom!


Iran – What Next?

Posted in Ahmadinajad, Iran, Islamic Revolution with tags , , , on 20/07/2009 by floroy1942

It would seem the turmoil surrounding Iran’s disputed election is not over, as yet another prominent figure has declared his dissatisfaction at the result. The hard liners are still holding fast to the win of Ahmadinajad, and even though they have tried to stifle opposition to the vote, it keeps resurfacing.

Last Sunday another former President, Mohammad Khatami, who is closely allied with the Association of Combatant Clerics (ACC), has added his voice to the call for reform, and even went so far as to suggest a referendum to end the dispute.

There is without doubt a very strong movement for reform in Iran, with many people wanting an end to the country’s isolation. However, the ‘ruling faction’, under Ahmadinajad seems intent on projecting Iran as a nuclear power, and, more importantly, the dominant nation in the Middle East. Despite its constant denials, no-one on the planet believes that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons.

While Ahmadinajad is the public face of Iranian Politics, it is well known that the real power lies ‘behind the throne’ so to speak. The secretive power mongers of Iran are really various groups of clerics, for example, The Guardian Council, and in particular the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanie who succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini.

The power struggle has been brewing for some time as a new generation of Iranians start to make their voices heard, and during the last elections they made it plain they want a change from the old ways. So now we have a struggle for control by those allied with the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader, and the Reformists who would lead Iran down a more conciliatory path with the west.

Among these is ex-president Rafsanjani who voiced his dissatisfaction with the vote hours after Ahmadinajad declared himself the winner. Rafsanjani has now been joined by other powerful voices in Iran such as Khatami, another ex-president.

Where this goes from here is anybodies guess, but one thing is sure, Ahmadinajad will not relinquish the reins of power without a fight, at least so long as he has the backing of Khamanie.

It would seem that the real leaders of Iran are in for a long period of deep thought as to where the country should go from here. I am sure they will look fondly at the prospect of Iran being a nuclear nation with all the prestige that can bring, and therefore becoming the ‘top dog’ in the Middle East, and with it the chance to force the Islamic Revolution onto their western leaning neighbours.

On the other hand, the leaders know they cannot go against the will of the people for too long. As history has repeatedly shown, in a situation like this it is only a matter of time before they are cast down.

May justice and truth prevail.


The Mushroom Cometh!

Posted in Iran, North Korea, Nuclear Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons with tags , , , , , , , on 17/06/2009 by floroy1942

Some will say we are heading full speed into disaster, and you know something, they could be right! There are two global situations, which if allowed to develop any further, will certainly bring us all to the brink, and neither are palatable. I write of course about the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran.

North Korea is ahead in the game because they have already tested two bombs, and have declared their intention to make fissionable material for more.

As for Iran, their President denies Iran’s nuclear ambitions as being anything more than the peaceful generation of electricity. No-one in their right mind is willing to believe this statement, but it does what the Iranians want it to do; it buys them time.

Today, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei has stated publicly he is convinced Iran wishes to have nuclear weapons technology to increase its standing in the Middle East and the World. He went on to say he believed they are not directly after ‘a bomb’, but at a minimum, the technology necessary to make one if they so desire.

He is quoted as saying; “It wants to send a message to its neighbours, it wants to send a message to the rest of the world: Yes, don’t mess with us, we can have nuclear weapons if we want it”.

So right now we have essentially two rogue states, one with, and one striving to get, nuclear weapon technology. It is abundantly clear that the whole world is extremely unhappy at the prospect of these two becoming nuclear powers, especially the Middle East Arab States, Japan, South Korea, the USA, and Europe.

While President Obama is clearly at a loss at what to do next, and who can blame him, both countries are getting steadily closer to their goal.

Naturally, The USA does not wish to be seen as the aggressor in either case, but I believe Obama knows he cannot wait until they have achieved their aim and developed not only the bomb, but the means to deliver it.

The threats delivered almost daily by Pyongyang indicate their willingness to go to war, or so it seems, but at the same time, Obama cannot be seen to be the architect of a new Korean Peninsular war. Most countries would agree with a ‘final solution’ to the North Korean bomb threat, but as hypocritical as they are, they would roundly condemn both Obama and the USA for any unilateral action it took to ensure North Korea’s bomb ambitions were stopped cold.

With Iran the situation is somewhat more complex, mainly because Israel is in the mix! There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Israel will not stand idly by while Iran builds a nuclear bomb. President Obama has made it very clear to the Israeli’s however that unilateral action against Iran’s bomb making capabilities is, in his view, a non-starter.

However, it is easy to understand why nerves are somewhat frayed in Tel Aviv. Iran already has sufficient missile technology to plant a nuclear bomb on Israel, all they need is the payload. If they get that I am sure there will be no stopping them, such is the feeling of hatred towards Israel in Iranian government circles. Indeed, Ahmadinejad has already stated publicly that he wishes to see “Israel wiped off the map”.

I think Mr. ElBaradei is somewhat naive if he thinks Iran will stop at having the necessary technology for a nuclear weapon and not actually produce one. Of course they will! If I give a child an ice cream and tell him/her to hold it and not taste it, would they?

Both North Korea and Iran were declared ‘State sponsors of terrorism’ by Bush and he may well have been right, so this opens up another avenue of worry for the international community. If both these States get the technology they are seeking, how do we know they will not sell that knowledge to other countries?

It was a milestone in human history when we seemed to go back from the brink of nuclear annihilation with the famous S.T.A.R.T Agreement between Russia and the USA, and the signing of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Pact by the UN members. Now that North Korea has backed out of the latter treaty, and Iran denies its ambitions, the prospect of a nuclear holocaust may seem just that little bit closer again.

There are without doubt, many uncertainties in what the future holds for mankind, but one thing is certain, North Korea and Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

At some time in the reasonably near future, action will have to be taken to ensure that the dreams of domination by these two States is not allowed a fruitful outcome. At some time, before they get the technology they seek, someone is going to have to blow the hell out of the nuclear reactors and plants used in the bomb making process.

Already North Korea is starting to produce more weapons grade material from their stock of spent reactor fuel rods. Does the world have to wait until they have successfully produced another six or seven bombs before we take action? If we do, the likelihood of a nuclear response from North Korea will magnify a hundred fold.

Time is rapidly running out for any restraining action by the World, and it is clear that all the signatories of the UN Charter must come together and authorise whatever action is necessary, including force, to bring North Korea in line. An end must come to the prevarication of countries like Russia and China who seem to enjoy opposing UN Resolutions of this nature.

It is possible that if all the countries take a strong enough line with North Korea, Iran will see its position as hopeless and come into line too. Whichever way it goes, I believe we are heading for a crisis of huge proportions which only a united effort can stop. Heaven help us all.

May all your mushrooms be the eating kind.


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