Archive for Iran Sanctions

Are The Iran Nuclear Negotiations Worth It?

Posted in America, Britain, European Union, Insurgents, Iran, Israel, News, Nuclear Proliferation, Terrorism, United Nations with tags , , , , on 09/04/2015 by floroy1942

Do you believe that Iran is seeking to make nuclear weapons or that, as they say, it is for peaceful purposes only? This thorny issue has been of major concern to many countries for the past twelve years. For more than a decade negotiations have been on-going, and in my view are still far from an agreement.

Says It All Really

Says It All Really

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

In a recent statement Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said, “I have never been optimistic about negotiating with America. While I was not optimistic, I agreed with this particular negotiation and supported the negotiators.” He went on to say, “We will sign no agreement but the one that immediately abolishes all the economic sanctions on the first day of the implementation of the agreement.” It would seem he wants ‘to have his cake and eat it too’.

The negotiators on the other side of the table are insisting that sanctions will be lifted gradually once it is seen that Iran is abiding by the terms of the agreement. I would consider this to be a much more sensible approach than that stated by the Iranian Leader.

Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

To demand the removal of all sanctions on the day the agreement is signed is no guarantee that Iran will fully take the steps required to limit its nuclear programme.

There will need to be a system of inspections by the  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure conformance with the terms of the agreement, otherwise Iran could just continue with their activities in secret. This all takes time to arrange, and verification will be a long process. In my view, Iran has been stringing out these talks for more than ten years while in the background they have been continuing their quest for fissionable material. After so many years of negotiation it is highly possible they already have sufficient material to make at least one nuclear weapon, crude though it might be. It would be easy to hide this away somewhere out of sight of the IAEA inspectors.

Nuclear Site

Nuclear Site

It is worthy to note that when they first allowed these inspectors into their sites a couple of years ago they allowed inspections of all but one, and then some months later allowed the inspectors into that site while refusing them entry to another. Smells fishy to me, how about you?

If over the intervening years Iran has managed to make sufficient nuclear material for a bomb, what would they do with it?

Their two main enemies are Israel, and as stated on many an occasion, the United States of America. So if you were them, and had a secret nuclear bomb what would you do with it?

Tactics

Tactics

The whole idea of Iran becoming a nuclear nation is a horrific one, for being a staunch Islamic nation which has shown its hatred for the West on many occasions, with atomic weapons it is capable of anything.  Iran has been a very active supporter of terrorist groups across the world, supplying them with arms and funds for their inhuman activities, so who is to say they will not provide someone like al Quada or Islamic State with a nuclear weapon?

A Terrorists Dream

A Terrorists Dream

There are without doubt more than enough terrorist organizations that would love to have a nuclear weapon, no matter how crude. They make no secret about who their enemies are, and would love the chance to blow up Tel Aviv or New York for example. Who is to say Iran would not initiate a devastating nuclear attack on Israel, their sworn enemy?

'Diplomacy' At Work

‘Diplomacy’ At Work

Iran as a nuclear nation would also be a great threat in the Middle East, for it would give them control, and if you remember, that’s where most of the world’s oil comes from.

This insistence by Iran that all sanctions are lifted as soon as the agreement is signed could spell the end of the negotiations. It remains to be seen if the western powers will cave in to this, but if they do it will set a dangerous precedent.

Roy.

Is Time Running Out For the USA and Israel?

Posted in Iran, Islamic Revolution, Israel, Nuclear Weapons, Security Council, UN, United Nations, USA with tags , , , on 08/01/2012 by floroy1942

Ouch! The latest news from Iran is going to cause consternation in both Washington and Tel Aviv because the Iranians have just announced their underground nuclear facility at Fordow is beginning production of enriched uranium! This will considerably narrow the window for offensive operations by both parties if they wish to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

Fordow Enrichment Facility

Although the Iranian government strongly denies their nuclear programme is for weapons, all the evidence enforces the contrary and to put it bluntly, no-one believes them! Iran has already admitted enriching uranium to 20% which is far beyond the 3.5% required for a nuclear reactor to generate power. Their excuse is this highly enriched material is necessary for ‘medical purposes’ like X-Ray machines. Yea Right!!!!

While western scientists agree that uranium requires enrichment to 90% for a nuclear device, the fact that Iran has already reached 20% means they are on the fast track to full enrichment.

Next With a Nuclear Weapon On It?

Just about any intelligent person will realise the danger to world peace of a radical Islamic nation with nuclear weapons, and that is reason enough for all nations to step in and say no. Unfortunately the only ones likely to do this are the USA and Israel, both of whom could expect to be the target of a nuclear Iran.

So long as all the facilities remain above ground these two countries can put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions whenever they wish with Tomahawk missiles, but once the production of fissionable material goes deep underground it makes it that much harder to destroy.

Skilful Delaying Tactics At The UN

International negotiations have gone on now for several years in an effort to stop Iran’s nuclear programme, but all that has come out of Iran is vague promises and prevarication that even an idiot could see was nothing more than an effort to gain time. Now we are rapidly approaching the crunch!

Any overt action against Iran, be it from the USA or Israel, will be classified as an act of aggression on the international stage and as an act of war by Iran. No matter how much the other nations breathe a sigh of relief at such an event, they will be forced to back Iran on the world stage at the UN.

Israeli Missile Test

There is little doubt that military action will be necessary to force the Islamic country to back down from its nuclear ambitions, which are to be a key player internationally, and the dominant power in the Middle East. Iran has made it very clear that nothing will dissuade  them. The country is already under severe UN sanctions and more are piling up by the week, but still they refuse to back down.

Considering that much of the world’s oil comes from the Middle East this can be seen as a major threat, although it must be said that western nations do not rely on this source as much as Asia.

Straits of Hormuz Oil Traffic

Recently, during military exercises in the Gulf obviously meant to impress everyone, the Iranian government threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz through which most of the world’s oil is transported. It didn’t come to that, and such an act would have been very short lived for it is something they could not hope to sustain for more than a day.

So now the eyes of the world will be focussed on Israel and the United States to see what these two powerful nations will do to counteract the threat of Iran’s nuclear programme going underground. If they do in fact plan any military intervention it will be necessary to act before the full move from the current site, the easily targeted Natanz, takes place.

Watch this space!!!!!!

Roy.

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