Ukraine – Things Are Getting Out of Hand!

Ukraine

Ukraine

The question comes to mind – Are we heading for a third world war over Ukraine? The rhetoric from all sides is getting tougher by the minute, and no sensible plan has been put forward to solve the crisis by either side. There seems to be endless mud-slinging, charge and counter-charge over what is happening there, and of course the West with its sanctions against Russia. But you have to ask yourself, what is all this accomplishing? Well, to my mind – nothing!

Push It At Your Peril

Push It At Your Peril

Tensions are getting higher and higher because neither side is (a) willing to tell the truth, and (b) no-one wants to back down. So we have a war of words between West and East and so far as I can see, temperatures are rising.  This is not good for anybody and solves nothing. Eventually some hot-head somewhere will have had enough and push The Button! If that happens it will mean the end of mankind on this planet, mind you, the way we have been carrying on for the last century we probably deserve it!

I am just an ordinary citizen but even I can see a way out of this chaos.

Russia does not wish to have NATO on its doorstep stretching all the way from the Adriatic to the Black Sea, which would happen if Ukraine joins. Militarily it is always better to have another country between you and your protagonist, a buffer zone if you like especially in light of their Naval Base in Sevastopol.

Russian Naval Fleet In Sevastopol Harbour

Russian Naval Fleet In Sevastopol Harbour

Putin is afraid of losing Sevastopol, the only warm water harbour Russia has for it’s Navy. That is the reason the Russians took over the Crimea at the start of the crisis. Should he lose Sevastopol, his Navy would be forced to retreat to the port of Murmansk above the Arctic Circle, or Vladivostok on the Pacific coast of Eastern Russia. For Russia this would be a strategic disaster in the event of hostilities.

Fighting In Ukraine

Fighting In Ukraine

In the meantime, accusations are flying back and forth about Russian troops coming into Ukraine to support the Russian sympathizers, and Government troops have been fighting them for several weeks. Only the other day during his annual visit to  a camp for boys outside Moscow, Putin felt it necessary to remind the West that Russia was a nuclear nation with a large arsenal of weapons.

Russian Gas

Russian Gas

But despite all the sanctions against it, Russia has a large card it can play too in the form of the gas supplies to Europe. Much of Europe now depends on gas pumped from Russia, and should they decide to close the tap this winter, it may not be catastrophic,  but it would certainly cause problems, and tensions would rise yet again.

One thing people need to remember is that all the sanctions in the world may hurt, but they alone will never bring a country like Russia to its knees. But, there can come a time when someone in the hierarchy says, “Enough” and pushes the fatal button.

Conference Table

Conference Table

It is for this reason that I feel all the participants need to sit around one table and find a solution. I mentioned at the beginning that I have a solution that should please everybody. Let Ukraine be neutral in world affairs just like Switzerland.

NATO Symbol

NATO Symbol

If the country were to take a neutral stance, but continue to trade with the E.U. and Russia there would be no problem. Russia would have its buffer-zone, as would NATO, and there would be no harm in Russia retaining its Sevastopol harbour facilities in a trade agreement with the Ukraine government.

I am aware that it all seems simple when sitting behind the computer at home for there would be an awful lot to sort out politically, but is such a thing impossible?

Ukraine wants to join the EU, but being neutral would not stop her trading with EU countries, it certainly doesn’t stop the Swiss. There is also no reason for the country to stop trading with Russia, and in fact, anyone else they choose.

I am sure the government would be happy to receive a steady income from the Russian’s for their use of Sevastopol, and the Russians would be happy to keep using it.

So far as NATO goes, I can see no reason why they would not be happy with such a solution, for an agreement such as this is surely better than a war that would annihilate all of us.

In The Words Of John Lennon...

In The Words Of John Lennon…

I sincerely hope that all sides, and by this I mean Putin, the USA, the Ukrainian leaders of both sides, and responsible people from Europe, can eventually come to the table and discuss this properly without any preconditions, and look to making Ukraine a neutral country spanning East and West.

For that sake of world peace I hope cool heads rule.

Roy.

 

 

 

2 Responses to “Ukraine – Things Are Getting Out of Hand!”

  1. I am siding with Ukraine in this and Ukraine only. I don’t care about the Eu,NATO or US desires whether political or economic. The people of Ukraine have the right to be and this includes having the fifth column Russian nationals leave the physical boundaries of Ukraine as opposed to taking them via Novorussya.
    The Russians are absolutely pathetic in this play. Their Black Sea Fleet is important to them but strategically it offers NOTHING outside of the Black Sea. Seriously the fleet would never get out past the Dardenelles if opposing forces chose that to be true.
    Russia is looking to maximize their resources and this includes scarfing down those assets sitting in and under their former vassals dirt.
    The Russians had a long term lease on Sevastopol they just decided it was better just outright take it and base it on the history and manipulated population %’s.

    Like

    • Hi Alfie,
      Nice to have you back. I agree with much of what you say, in particular that it is up to Ukraine and its people to decide their future. To be honest, I can’t think that joining the EU would necessarily be a good thing for them, for the EU have ‘cocked up’ many things here in western Europe. But after all, it is for them to decide.
      So far as the Black Sea Fleet is concerned, you may well be right in that they will find it difficult to get through the Dardenelles in the event of hostilities, however, I am sure they have thought of a solution for that. No Major power like Russia would house their fleet in a trap. I am pretty sure they seized it because not to have done would mean losing the base completely if Ukraine joined NATO and the EU.
      You are right in what you say that Russia has made many mistakes in this crisis, but in my opinion, so too have Europe and the USA. In particular, the EU has been putting the pressure on the Ukrainian leaders to join them, but it is by no means certain that would be a good idea in my view.
      I put forward the idea of Ukraine becoming neutral territory as a means to de-escalate the current East-West tension. This would mean neither side had any reason to fight over the country for fear of any alliances it may make. Whatever happens, I guess we will just have to wait and see what develops.
      Best of Luck,
      Roy.

      Like

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